Skip to content
Arknomics

Training · IB-2 · Lesson 01 of 12

Valuation: the concept

The rule

A company is worth the cash it will return to owners, discounted for time and risk. Price and value differ whenever someone is wrong about the inputs.

Value is future cash, discounted

A business is worth the cash it will generate for its owners over its life, adjusted for when that cash arrives and how risky it is. Everything else — multiples, comparables, target prices — is a shortcut to that idea. When a shortcut and the principle disagree, the principle wins.

Price is what the market currently pays. Value is what the cash flows justify. Banking work often consists of estimating value, then explaining why a buyer should pay a price close to it.

Intrinsic versus relative

Intrinsic valuation (a DCF) estimates value from the company's own forecast. Relative valuation (trading comparables and precedent transactions) estimates value from what similar assets are priced at. Intrinsic methods capture specifics but depend on assumptions; relative methods reflect the market but import its mood.

  • ·Use intrinsic when the business has predictable cash flow and few true peers.
  • ·Use relative when good peers exist and the market is pricing them sensibly.
  • ·Use both and explain the gap; the gap is often the most interesting finding.

Equity value and enterprise value

Equity value is what the shareholders' stake is worth: share price times diluted shares. Enterprise value is the value of the operating business to all capital providers: equity value plus debt, preferred stock and minority interest, minus cash. It answers 'what would it cost to buy the whole business, free of financing?'

Match the multiple to the measure. Enterprise value pairs with metrics before interest (revenue, EBITDA, EBIT). Equity value pairs with metrics after interest (net income, earnings per share).

Bridge from equity value to enterprise value
Share price × diluted shares
$2,000m
+ Debt
$800m
+ Preferred & minority interest
$100m
− Cash
($300m)
Enterprise value
$2,600m

Why cash is subtracted

A buyer of the whole company receives its cash, which effectively reduces the price paid for the operations. Debt is added because the buyer must assume or repay it. Interviewers often ask what happens to enterprise value when a company raises debt and holds the cash: nothing, because debt and cash rise equally.

Judgement in valuation

Every valuation is a range. Bankers present a 'football field' chart showing the range from each method, then argue where in that range the price should sit. Being able to explain why one method deserves more weight is the skill interviewers are probing.

Hold onto this

  • ·Value comes from future cash, not from what someone paid last year.
  • ·Discount rate = the return required for this specific risk.
  • ·Intrinsic value and market price converge only over long horizons.

Progress saved on this device

Education, not financial advice. Figures may be simplified for illustration.

One rule a week, in your inbox