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Arknomics

Training · IB-2 · Lesson 04 of 12

Comparable companies

The rule

Comps price a business against listed peers on a multiple. Choose peers on business model, growth and risk, not on industry label.

The idea

Similar businesses should trade at similar multiples of their earnings or cash flow. If peers trade at ten times EBITDA and your company has $100m of EBITDA, a first estimate of enterprise value is $1bn. The work is in choosing true peers and normalising the numbers.

Selecting peers

Match on business model first, then size, growth, margins and geography. A software company selling subscriptions is not a peer of one selling licences, even in the same sector. Five to fifteen peers is typical; quality beats quantity.

  • ·Same end markets and customer types.
  • ·Similar growth and margin profile.
  • ·Comparable size and listing market.

Spreading the comps

For each peer, calculate equity value from diluted shares (using the treasury stock method for options), bridge to enterprise value, and pull last-twelve-month and forward revenue, EBITDA and earnings. Adjust for non-recurring items so you compare like with like.

Applying a peer multiple
Peer median EV/EBITDA (NTM)
9.5x
Target NTM EBITDA
$120m
Implied enterprise value
$1,140m
− Net debt
($240m)
Implied equity value
$900m
÷ Diluted shares (50m)
$18.00 per share

Choosing the multiple

EV/EBITDA is the workhorse for mature businesses. EV/Revenue is used for unprofitable growth companies. P/E suits financials and stable earners. Sector-specific metrics exist: EV per subscriber, price-to-book for banks, EV/EBITDAR for airlines and retailers with heavy leases.

Interpreting the output

Use the median and interquartile range, not just the mean, because one outlier can skew the average. Then argue whether your company deserves a premium or discount — higher growth, better margins and lower risk justify premiums. That argument is the analysis; the spreadsheet is support.

Hold onto this

  • ·Enterprise value over EBITDA strips out capital structure so businesses compare cleanly.
  • ·Adjust for non-recurring items and lease accounting before ranking anyone.
  • ·A tight range of five to ten peers beats a wide list of thirty.

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Education, not financial advice. Figures may be simplified for illustration.

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