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Arknomics

Training · IB-2 · Lesson 02 of 12

Valuation methods

The rule

Four families: intrinsic (DCF), market comparables, precedent transactions, and liquidation or asset value. A football field shows them side by side and explains the spread.

The three main methods

Banks rely on comparable companies, precedent transactions and discounted cash flow. Each answers a different question: what are similar companies trading at, what have buyers paid for similar companies, and what are this company's cash flows worth. Together they triangulate a defensible range.

Strengths and weaknesses

Comparables are current and market-based but can be distorted when the whole sector is mispriced. Precedents include a control premium, so they usually produce higher values, but they age quickly and deal terms vary. A DCF is grounded in fundamentals but highly sensitive to the discount rate and terminal value.

  • ·Comps: fast, market-based, but needs true peers.
  • ·Precedents: shows what control costs, but data is sparse and dated.
  • ·DCF: company-specific, but assumption-driven.

Other methods worth knowing

A leveraged buyout analysis sets a floor: what a financial sponsor could pay and still earn its target return. Sum-of-the-parts values each division separately, useful for conglomerates. Liquidation value matters in distress. Dividend discount models are used for banks and insurers, where debt is part of operations.

Building the football field

Each method produces a low-to-high range. Plot them together and compare against the current share price and any offer. If ranges cluster, the valuation is robust; if they diverge widely, the story behind the divergence becomes the point of the analysis.

Illustrative football field (enterprise value)
Trading comps (8–10x EBITDA)
$800m–$1,000m
Precedents (10–12x EBITDA)
$1,000m–$1,200m
DCF (WACC 8–10%)
$900m–$1,150m
LBO floor (20% IRR)
$850m–$950m
Implied range
$950m–$1,100m

Choosing weights

For a stable industrial with many peers, comps and DCF carry weight. For a company being sold, precedents matter because the buyer pays for control. For a high-growth company with no profits, revenue multiples and a long-horizon DCF dominate. State the choice and the reason; there is no single right answer.

Hold onto this

  • ·Comps say what similar businesses trade at; precedents say what buyers paid for control.
  • ·Precedents sit higher than comps because they include a control premium.
  • ·A DCF is the most sensitive method and the most defensible when assumptions are stated.

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Education, not financial advice. Figures may be simplified for illustration.

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